tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6422944892527683969.post3971838546392038354..comments2023-10-13T03:04:59.079-06:00Comments on Flames From 80 Feet: Two Ways To Look at "It's Not Sustainable"Darren Hayneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18313656680741630135noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6422944892527683969.post-82234731517777543242014-11-21T11:58:22.617-07:002014-11-21T11:58:22.617-07:00Actually there tends to be a strong corralation be...Actually there tends to be a strong corralation between total shots and total scoring chances (the more shots a team takes the more scoring chances they have). Which makes perfect sense since one is a product of the other.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6422944892527683969.post-14607255633788537622014-11-20T16:31:04.429-07:002014-11-20T16:31:04.429-07:00The number of shots means nothing.... I rather giv...The number of shots means nothing.... I rather give up 50 shots from the point and take 20 shots from the slot any day. Take a look at scoring chances for and against and that may paint a better story. If you're outshooting a team by 10 and only out chancing them by 1 or 2... it's not much of a difference.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6422944892527683969.post-71378392492182672312014-11-20T08:59:01.688-07:002014-11-20T08:59:01.688-07:00How many of the 'advanced stat' gurus and ...How many of the 'advanced stat' gurus and 'analytics experts' are blogger 'hacks' without stat degrees? Yes, not sustainable, but using data as a predictive element won't get you too far (I hope I don't eat my words).Rohttp://www.flamesforum.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6422944892527683969.post-47295111506779893882014-11-19T15:30:34.968-07:002014-11-19T15:30:34.968-07:00The question isn't "can" they do it?...The question isn't "can" they do it?, it's are they likely to do it?. The answers respectively are yes and no. Toronto fluked there way to a playoff birth in the lock-out shortened season and the Aves did it last year so, sure they can do it to... but Toronto's luck came crashing down in spectacular fashion last year and the Aves have been once again relegated to bottom-feeder this year. Here's the raw facts... 26.2 and 29.3... that's the Flames SPG and SAPG, call me crazy iif you want but I find it less likely that teams that get outshot will make the playoffs. <br /><br />If I may address your 'also not sustainable' points individually...<br /><br />1: Injuries: While it's true that all of them do represent upgrades on Devin Setoguchi, Max Reinhart and Brandon Bollig the truth is that they won't be replacing those three... they'll be replacing people higher on the depth chart. There may be a trickledown improvement (although I wouldn't bet on Bollig losing his job anytime soon) but it'll be to the tune of 5 minutes a game (a guestimate on how much time those guys have played per game considering Bolligs fourth line status and the amount of games the others dress).<br /><br />2: Inexperience: Yes they will gain experience and lose the first month jitters or nervousness... but they'll also lose the adrenaline they get from playing in the bigs for the first time on the reg, other teams will develop a 'book' on them, and they'll start to experience the grind of the NHL regular season.<br /><br />3: Glencross Slump: Curtis Glencross currently is producing at a 0.5PPG pace... Curtis Glencross career PPG rate? 0.55. He's not really in a slump at all he's just contributing in a different way. Even if you want to just consider his rate vs. more recent data he's only down a little which is to be expected considering he is for effectively the first time the teams #1 LW and thus expected to face harder assignments. <br /><br />4: Bad Goals Against: Jonas Hiller Career SV% 0.917, his current SV% 0.920. While I agree that we won't see stinkers let in like we have recently I also disagree that we'll see a return to the early stellar performance. Or if we do we'll see alternating hot and cold stretches.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com